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        "bond_sats": 2000000000,
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        "bond_sats": 3866000000,
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        "bond_sats": 5000000000,
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        "bond_sats": 10000000000,
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        "monthly_net_sats": 6683628.710475955,
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      {
        "bond_sats": 20000000000,
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        "bond_sats": 50000000000,
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    "fee_description": "Relative offer at 0.2%, 18,000 sat per typical CJ. 51.6% of historical takers accepted at least this rate.",
    "driver_note": "1,085.9 CJs/month \u00d7 51.6% inferred fee eligibility \u00d7 30.4% selection probability = 170.07 modeled fills/month. Typical CJ: 9,000,000 sat, 7 makers.",
    "bond_note": "Selection weight grows as bond^1.3, so each extra BTC buys more than proportional selection probability until the bond dominates the competing weight. ROI per BTC therefore rises with bond size up to the optimum, then falls as selection saturates.",
    "assumptions": "90-day activity ending 2026-10-29. Fee evidence: 159 one-input-per-participant CJs (2026-07-31 to 2026-10-29); all maker fees treated as relative; assumes nonnegative maker gains. 37 CJs implying rates of 1% or more excluded as outliers (absolute fees on small CJs, non-JoinMarket transactions); fees of 1% or more not evaluated. Bond evidence: 3,082/3,211 CJs matched to earlier snapshots (2026-07-31 to 2026-10-29). All active historical bonds, 95% weighted slots; fee limits and competition assumed independent. One-year lock, 1.5% valuation rate, exponent 1.3, bond range 0.01 to 1,000 BTC. Unlimited liquidity, zero maker miner contribution; operating and bond costs excluded. Typical-round estimate, not a large-transaction-weighted forecast.",
    "basis": "historical_cjs",
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        "inference_outcomes": {
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          "multi_input": 2998,
          "infeasible": 17
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            "bond_sats": 3866000000,
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            "monthly_cjs": 170.0652350464031,
            "monthly_net_sats": 3061174.2308352557,
            "annual_roi_percent": 0.9501834136063909,
            "optimal": true
          },
          {
            "bond_sats": 5000000000,
            "selection_probability": 0.3888170871847301,
            "monthly_cjs": 217.75088428031592,
            "monthly_net_sats": 3919515.9170456864,
            "annual_roi_percent": 0.9406838200909647,
            "optimal": false
          },
          {
            "bond_sats": 10000000000,
            "selection_probability": 0.6630178578252228,
            "monthly_cjs": 371.31270613755305,
            "monthly_net_sats": 6683628.710475955,
            "annual_roi_percent": 0.8020354452571146,
            "optimal": false
          },
          {
            "bond_sats": 20000000000,
            "selection_probability": 0.8931409510724009,
            "monthly_cjs": 500.1895191673446,
            "monthly_net_sats": 9003411.345012203,
            "annual_roi_percent": 0.5402046807007321,
            "optimal": false
          },
          {
            "bond_sats": 50000000000,
            "selection_probability": 0.9932811218402211,
            "monthly_cjs": 556.27144420454,
            "monthly_net_sats": 10012885.99568172,
            "annual_roi_percent": 0.24030926389636129,
            "optimal": false
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        ],
        "fee_description": "Relative offer at 0.2%, 18,000 sat per typical CJ. 51.6% of historical takers accepted at least this rate.",
        "driver_note": "1,085.9 CJs/month \u00d7 51.6% inferred fee eligibility \u00d7 30.4% selection probability = 170.07 modeled fills/month. Typical CJ: 9,000,000 sat, 7 makers.",
        "bond_note": "Selection weight grows as bond^1.3, so each extra BTC buys more than proportional selection probability until the bond dominates the competing weight. ROI per BTC therefore rises with bond size up to the optimum, then falls as selection saturates.",
        "assumptions": "90-day activity ending 2026-10-29. Fee evidence: 159 one-input-per-participant CJs (2026-07-31 to 2026-10-29); all maker fees treated as relative; assumes nonnegative maker gains. 37 CJs implying rates of 1% or more excluded as outliers (absolute fees on small CJs, non-JoinMarket transactions); fees of 1% or more not evaluated. Bond evidence: 3,082/3,211 CJs matched to earlier snapshots (2026-07-31 to 2026-10-29). All active historical bonds, 95% weighted slots; fee limits and competition assumed independent. One-year lock, 1.5% valuation rate, exponent 1.3, bond range 0.01 to 1,000 BTC. Unlimited liquidity, zero maker miner contribution; operating and bond costs excluded. Typical-round estimate, not a large-transaction-weighted forecast."
      },
      {
        "status": "ok",
        "window_days": 365,
        "period_start": "2025-10-29",
        "period_end": "2026-10-29",
        "activity_cjs": 15570,
        "median_cj_sats": 6277211,
        "median_makers": 7.0,
        "monthly_activity": 1298.362037671233,
        "fee_samples": 1316,
        "fee_outliers": 222,
        "inference_outcomes": {
          "multi_input": 13920,
          "inferred": 1538,
          "infeasible": 112
        },
        "fee_sample_start": "2025-10-30",
        "fee_sample_end": "2026-10-29",
        "bond_matches": 5738,
        "bond_covered_cjs": 5886,
        "bond_match_rate": 0.9748555895344886,
        "bond_sample_start": "2026-05-22",
        "bond_sample_end": "2026-10-29",
        "max_snapshot_age_hours": 2.0015731953250038,
        "relative_fee": "0.002",
        "relative_fee_percent": 0.2,
        "per_fill_sats": 12554,
        "fee_eligibility": 0.3981762917933131,
        "bond_sats": 4475000000,
        "lock_years": 1,
        "selection_probability": 0.30924418167029266,
        "monthly_cjs": 159.87212360649016,
        "monthly_net_sats": 2007034.6397558774,
        "annual_roi_percent": 0.5381992330071627,
        "boundary": null,
        "bond_curve": [
          {
            "bond_sats": 10000000,
            "selection_probability": 0.0001438279712625372,
            "monthly_cjs": 0.0743557504479444,
            "monthly_net_sats": 933.462091123494,
            "annual_roi_percent": 0.11201545093481927,
            "optimal": false
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          {
            "bond_sats": 50000000,
            "selection_probability": 0.0011645745616301545,
            "monthly_cjs": 0.6020582416791052,
            "monthly_net_sats": 7558.239166039486,
            "annual_roi_percent": 0.18139773998494768,
            "optimal": false
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          {
            "bond_sats": 100000000,
            "selection_probability": 0.002863813653447088,
            "monthly_cjs": 1.4805257383241157,
            "monthly_net_sats": 18586.520118920947,
            "annual_roi_percent": 0.22303824142705136,
            "optimal": false
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          {
            "bond_sats": 200000000,
            "selection_probability": 0.007029189209831135,
            "monthly_cjs": 3.6339290205487624,
            "monthly_net_sats": 45620.34492396916,
            "annual_roi_percent": 0.273722069543815,
            "optimal": false
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          {
            "bond_sats": 500000000,
            "selection_probability": 0.02285406826752242,
            "monthly_cjs": 11.815027229427423,
            "monthly_net_sats": 148325.85183823187,
            "annual_roi_percent": 0.35598204441175646,
            "optimal": false
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          {
            "bond_sats": 1000000000,
            "selection_probability": 0.05489179526707488,
            "monthly_cjs": 28.377794629864095,
            "monthly_net_sats": 356254.83378331386,
            "annual_roi_percent": 0.42750580053997667,
            "optimal": false
          },
          {
            "bond_sats": 2000000000,
            "selection_probability": 0.12751840533759365,
            "monthly_cjs": 65.9240802854294,
            "monthly_net_sats": 827610.9039032806,
            "annual_roi_percent": 0.4965665423419684,
            "optimal": false
          },
          {
            "bond_sats": 4475000000,
            "selection_probability": 0.30924418167029266,
            "monthly_cjs": 159.87212360649016,
            "monthly_net_sats": 2007034.6397558774,
            "annual_roi_percent": 0.5381992330071627,
            "optimal": true
          },
          {
            "bond_sats": 5000000000,
            "selection_probability": 0.3449038972969615,
            "monthly_cjs": 178.30737575463672,
            "monthly_net_sats": 2238470.795223709,
            "annual_roi_percent": 0.5372329908536903,
            "optimal": false
          },
          {
            "bond_sats": 10000000000,
            "selection_probability": 0.6130002097962158,
            "monthly_cjs": 316.90699815924614,
            "monthly_net_sats": 3978450.454891176,
            "annual_roi_percent": 0.4774140545869412,
            "optimal": false
          },
          {
            "bond_sats": 20000000000,
            "selection_probability": 0.8641097647140767,
            "monthly_cjs": 446.724857902848,
            "monthly_net_sats": 5608183.866112353,
            "annual_roi_percent": 0.33649103196674124,
            "optimal": false
          },
          {
            "bond_sats": 50000000000,
            "selection_probability": 0.9901769373296115,
            "monthly_cjs": 511.8986842760789,
            "monthly_net_sats": 6426376.082401894,
            "annual_roi_percent": 0.15423302597764546,
            "optimal": false
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        ],
        "fee_description": "Relative offer at 0.2%, 12,554 sat per typical CJ. 39.8% of historical takers accepted at least this rate.",
        "driver_note": "1,298.4 CJs/month \u00d7 39.8% inferred fee eligibility \u00d7 30.9% selection probability = 159.87 modeled fills/month. Typical CJ: 6,277,211 sat, 7 makers.",
        "bond_note": "Selection weight grows as bond^1.3, so each extra BTC buys more than proportional selection probability until the bond dominates the competing weight. ROI per BTC therefore rises with bond size up to the optimum, then falls as selection saturates.",
        "assumptions": "365-day activity ending 2026-10-29. Fee evidence: 1,316 one-input-per-participant CJs (2025-10-30 to 2026-10-29); all maker fees treated as relative; assumes nonnegative maker gains. 222 CJs implying rates of 1% or more excluded as outliers (absolute fees on small CJs, non-JoinMarket transactions); fees of 1% or more not evaluated. Bond evidence: 5,738/15,570 CJs matched to earlier snapshots (2026-05-22 to 2026-10-29). All active historical bonds, 95% weighted slots; fee limits and competition assumed independent. One-year lock, 1.5% valuation rate, exponent 1.3, bond range 0.01 to 1,000 BTC. Unlimited liquidity, zero maker miner contribution; operating and bond costs excluded. Typical-round estimate, not a large-transaction-weighted forecast."
      }
    ]
  },
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      "bond_count": 92,
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      "as_of": "2026-05-23T23:58:58.434498Z",
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      "as_of": "2026-05-24T23:58:33.232844Z",
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      "as_of": "2026-05-28T23:58:18.629135Z",
      "makers": 2358,
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      "as_of": "2026-05-30T23:59:19.044404Z",
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      "as_of": "2026-06-03T23:58:27.620786Z",
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      "as_of": "2026-06-06T23:58:46.693715Z",
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      "as_of": "2026-06-07T23:58:03.808973Z",
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      "as_of": "2026-06-08T23:59:56.226507Z",
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    {
      "as_of": "2026-06-17T23:59:20.869805Z",
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    {
      "as_of": "2026-06-18T23:59:55.056926Z",
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    {
      "as_of": "2026-06-19T23:59:19.163339Z",
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    {
      "as_of": "2026-06-20T23:59:27.862971Z",
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    {
      "as_of": "2026-06-21T23:59:57.281474Z",
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    {
      "as_of": "2026-06-22T23:59:24.719918Z",
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    {
      "as_of": "2026-06-23T23:58:47.772369Z",
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    {
      "as_of": "2026-06-24T23:58:12.218062Z",
      "makers": 1905,
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    {
      "as_of": "2026-06-25T23:59:12.945364Z",
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    {
      "as_of": "2026-06-26T23:59:58.457190Z",
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    {
      "as_of": "2026-06-27T23:59:53.877383Z",
      "makers": 2000,
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      "reported_locked_sats": 25633264936,
      "locked_sats": 25633264936,
      "bond_count": 64,
      "verification_available": true,
      "observations": 24
    },
    {
      "as_of": "2026-10-24T23:59:48.848378Z",
      "makers": 99,
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      "advertised_bonded_makers": 74,
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      "reported_locked_sats": 39490068849,
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    },
    {
      "as_of": "2026-10-25T23:59:34.871027Z",
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      "advertised_bonded_makers": 74,
      "bonded_makers": 73,
      "reported_locked_sats": 36434613392,
      "locked_sats": 36434613392,
      "bond_count": 68,
      "verification_available": true,
      "observations": 24
    },
    {
      "as_of": "2026-10-26T23:59:04.124261Z",
      "makers": 2110,
      "offer_count": 2118,
      "advertised_bonded_makers": 79,
      "bonded_makers": 76,
      "reported_locked_sats": 38276330712,
      "locked_sats": 38276330712,
      "bond_count": 72,
      "verification_available": true,
      "observations": 24
    },
    {
      "as_of": "2026-10-27T23:59:08.558692Z",
      "makers": 697,
      "offer_count": 727,
      "advertised_bonded_makers": 79,
      "bonded_makers": 78,
      "reported_locked_sats": 38464673053,
      "locked_sats": 38464673053,
      "bond_count": 73,
      "verification_available": true,
      "observations": 24
    },
    {
      "as_of": "2026-10-28T23:59:48.645037Z",
      "makers": 1487,
      "offer_count": 1515,
      "advertised_bonded_makers": 81,
      "bonded_makers": 59,
      "reported_locked_sats": 35759777303,
      "locked_sats": 35759777303,
      "bond_count": 55,
      "verification_available": true,
      "observations": 24
    },
    {
      "as_of": "2026-10-29T22:25:56.544643Z",
      "makers": 85,
      "offer_count": 115,
      "advertised_bonded_makers": 68,
      "bonded_makers": 68,
      "reported_locked_sats": 36838418072,
      "locked_sats": 36838418072,
      "bond_count": 64,
      "verification_available": true,
      "observations": 25
    }
  ],
  "provenance": [
    "Imported joinmarket_analyzer full-block corpus from height 877259; conditional solver gains: max(0.5% denomination, 10,000 sat), one feasible solution, uniqueness not proven. Detector: equal-outputs-half-v1-min1"
  ],
  "scan_start": 877259,
  "last_scanned_at": "2026-10-29T21:06:07+00:00"
}
